the

In life we do things "bad", then "good". Refer, of course, conditional. But let's say you long to live in pairs or cooperate in business and already know what for a partner "good" or "bad". And, surely, have done, "the shoals", who were trying to hide.

Want to learn how to better hide their mistake? Correspondence with his mistress, left the account stash or a competing offer? Mention math! If You try to separate and disguise their most terrible secret separately - then chance to find the partner is higher than if You are hiding and dump all in one heap.


Do some calculations and illustrations. Suppose You have in the Bank fifty "good" fifty "bad" events. And they're all mixed up. For example, recorded in one phone hundred addresses. If Your partner randomly opens Your phone and chooses from a list the first entry, the chance to stumble on something that You want to hide it fifty percent or 0.5 as they say in probability theory.

But some people, based on their own ideas as better, buy a separate phone with a single entry (favorite number, for example). And this increases the probability of their sky popadalova half.

I write on my face men, but the result is not affected. Let I have two phones - one which has a ninety-nine addresses and one with a single room most of the woman.

the Likelihood that the wife will accidentally get the right phone - again 50% (one of two). If it will take "left" phone, you will find there is one record. It turns out that the chance of getting caught I is 0.5 (probability of choosing the phone) × 1 (guaranteed to find a mistress) = 0,5 or 50%.

if the missus will take a standard phone, the chance to detect there is room "other woman" or equal 49/99 ~0,495.

to find probability of detection of my Hobbies on the second phone equivalent: 0.5 (probability of choosing the phone) × 0,495 (the probability to detect the girlfriends phone) = 0,2475, or 24.75 per cent.

to determine the total likely to get caught in both cases, we add the probabilities in each case:
the Total probability = probability of first event + probability of the second case.
the Total probability = 50% + 24,75% = 74,75%

So buying a separate phone increases the risk of fawn in the half.

of Course, that the scheme can be applied to other situations. The General meaning will remain: it is better to hide your sins in total weight than the separate one to the side. 


2019-09-30
Статья выложена в ознакомительных целях. Все права на текст принадлежат ресурсу и/или автору (B17 B17)

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